Guesstimates On 14th December’10
14 December 2010
Many psychological problems I encounter among traders–professional as well as novice–are self-inflicted.
I say this, not to blame victims, but to call attention to the fact that two trading practices seem to lie at the heart of at least half of all the problems I see among traders:
* Quantum leaps in trading size – Traders increase their size in large proportional increments, creating P/L swings that feel large and that interfere with calm, rational decision making. It may not seem to be a large shift when you raise your size from five contracts to ten, but that doubling of size–and the resulting doubling of P/L swings–may feel much different than it looks on paper.
* Quantum leaps in trading size – Traders increase their size in large proportional increments, creating P/L swings that feel large and that interfere with calm, rational decision making. It may not seem to be a large shift when you raise your size from five contracts to ten, but that doubling of size–and the resulting doubling of P/L swings–may feel much different than it looks on paper.
* Departures from prudent risk management – This occurs particularly when traders are up or down a great deal of money on the day. Traders become overly aggressive to get their money back, or they become overly risk averse when they’re down. Similarly, when up money, traders become risk-seeking with house money or fearful of losing their gains.
Very often, these problems go hand in hand. Large changes in trading size lead to outsized gains and losses and departures from prudent risk management. These large emotional swings are processed by the mind in a manner similar to psychological traumas, creating very negative (and difficult to change) conditioned responses (different in degree, but not kind, from post-traumatic stress reactions).
My heartfelt message: Treat size with caution. Increase size incrementally, ensuring that trades don’t feel different when you enter and manage them. The best treatment for trading psychology problems is preventive medicine.
Target from Inverse Head & Shoulder Rs.162-163
Today,Just watch :148.50 level.
Catch it above this level only…………….and stock will zoom to kiss
156.50—–157 in minutes & there after ??
(101% Somebody knows something………….Buy and FORGET ,We see stock heading towards 175+ level very soon )Thirsty Traders can easily get Rs.5-7-8 in hrs only.
Sudden Spurt on card !!!
Above 617,No worry @ all.
Once it will cross 621 with volumes………..We see nonstop rally upto 641–649 level in hrs only.
(In Decline ,In Panic………….Buy this stock)
-Our Short Term Target Rs.675+,Reason………….God knows !!
3525——3570 are Hurdles !!
Think to Buy above 3570 level only and that too if trades withvolumes.
Nonstop Rally will start and stock can explode upto 3705-3750
Support exist at 3452—3428 level if not crosses (Y.High of 3548)
1056 is LAXMAN REKHA !!
(In 12 sessions from 966 to 1051 )
Now ,THINK to Buy above 1056 level only and that too if trades with (Great Volumes )
Then expect spurt upto 1086—-1096 level.
Support at 1034-1030—–& there after ???
Once crosses 712.50 will take to 729-734.50 !!
Screeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeming Buy for Thirsty Traders ,In Panic …Grab it
Spurt of Rs.50-60+ on card.
Enjoyed Blast in Bank Stocks ,ABG Shipyard ,CORE Projects ??
Today also many more stocks are looking hot and fiery.But u all just watch 5941 level for NF very carefully !!
No comments:
Post a Comment